The Playoff Push

So Nate brought up the question of how many points Sounders need to reach the playoffs at the end of the year. That got me to wondering what the rest of the schedule looked like. I know we don't have a lot of home games left. So let's see what games are on tap, where, and see what our chances are of taking points.

But first, Nate's conclusion that we need 40 points to be guaranteed a playoff spot. Agreed. My only caveat is that it seems like the last team in always has 39 points (even in seasons where they played 32 games). So maybe if we stink it up going forward, we can sneak in with 39 points. That being said, I'll go along with you Nate and see whether I think 43 points is achievable.

Here are the seven games left on the schedule:

Toronto (H)

DC (A)

Chivas (H)

New England (A)

Columbus (A)

Kansas City (A)

Dallas (H)

Toronto at Home 8.29 - 3 points

Their form is off and they are terrible away from home. In all competitions they have only won twice since the beginning of July. We should have all our attacking options available and we are at home. If we can't win this game, we don't deserve to make the playoffs.

DC Away 9.12 - 3 points

Since winning at home against Colorado on July 18th, DC has struggled. STRUGGLED. They have a murderous stretch of games coming up. They play 8 games in the next 4 weeks, and their game against us will be their 4th game in 10 days. I'm going out on a limb here. We win this game. DC will be exhausted and some of their key guys will probably be hurt or missing due to fatigue. In that same span? Sounders play once, against DC, in DC, on the first of the ten days. If there's a better scenario for us to take all the points on the road, I don't know what it is.

Chivas at Home 9.19 - 3 points

Chivas has been getting absolutely DESTROYED since beating Seattle in early June. I mean TAKEN TO THE WOODSHED. That being said, most teams in the league (not Seattle, unfortunately) get back on winning streaks when they play NYRB, and Chivas did that two weeks ago. They are now on a two-match streak. But they play AWAY to RSL, then they play LA in the Clasico, and then across the country to New England. They could conceivably lose all three games. If they take three points in that stretch, I'll be surprised. If they come in having been spanked in that stretch, I think Sounders will continue the beating. We finally get Chivas at home with a chance to get them back for some crappy results at the HDC. We win this game.

New England Away 9.26 - 0 points

At this point in my (unexpectedly) super-optimistic predictions, Sounders fly as far as they ever have to in order to play an MLS match. The stupid Revs are 4-1-1 in their last 6, winning on the road twice in that stretch. They get San Jose and KC at home, and then Chivas and NY on the road. I think they'll come through that stretch with 3 wins and a tie, and I feel like I'm selling them short in suggesting that they might tie Chivas. No scheduling grind to speak of either, as all these games are spaced out pretty well. I think our streak ends here, and NE gets the points despite a good effort from Sounders.

Columbus Crew Away 10.3 - 1 point

Columbus has gone mad. They have 6 wins in their last six matches. 6. They are destroying people. Their schedule isn't that easy before this game, playing Houston, Chicago and LA in September. Couple that with a CONCACAF Champions League slate that includes going to Costa Rica, and the Crew are in for a rough patch in September. They play six tough matches before they play Seattle, and only have three days to recover for this match after hosting Saprissa (no slouches) on Sept. 29th. I think we catch them at a great time. Injuries and cards and fatigue all play a role here. Sounders have a full week to prepare and no such grind in the month prior. We should manage a road draw. Maybe even a win with some luck.

Kansas City Wizards Away 10.17 - 1 point

No scheduling advantage for either team as neither has more than a game a week in the month leading up. KC is TURRUBLE right now. They have lost 3 straight, including losses to FC Dallas and SJ. They play at Houston and at Chivas in the two weeks prior, so they might be riding a losing streak. I think this is a road game we can poach. But in true Seattle fashion, I think the field conditions and some poor finishing will doom us to a tie.

FC Dallas Home 10.24 - 3 points?

If we've collected 11 points in the prior 6 matches, does this match even matter? We may have already secured a playoff spot. It may affect playoff POSITION, or it may not. If it doesn't, we may play subs and who knows. If it does mean something... FC Dallas plays at SJ and gets the Rapids at home in the two weeks before this. The schedule doesn't betray either team. The question here is if Sounders can stop Jeff Cunningham. The guy went insane for awhile (scoring 4 against KC on 8.1), but hasn't done much in the past few games. FC Dallas just lost to NYRB, but that will be ancient history by the time this game takes place. There might even be snow on the ground. That being said, on talent alone Seattle should handle this game. If it matters? 3 points. If not, 1 point.

And Wow. Somehow I've managed to predict a super-optimistic 14 points from the remaining 7 games. Is this even remotely reasonable? I would, and do (see above...) argue that this is reasonable. I must keep in mind Sounders' penchant for picking up stupid red cards, which will probably show up again at some point and result in us losing points to somebody when we probably would have earned something from the match playing with 11. Also, we have a lot of guys with yellow card accumulation problems. Marshall is on 4, with 2 games before the reduction to 3. Ljungberg is on 4, with no reduction possible. At some point he's going to get a stupid yellow. Let's hope he chooses wisely.

All things considered though, I see a strong and optimistic end to the season, and a solid playoff position. 47 points should get us a solid spot in the top 4 or 5.

Playoff Picture

With the hope of winning the league title all but gone, it is time to look forward to the playoffs. A playoff birth is far from guaranteed, but with the ridiculous MLS format we are still in the running. Here's how it works...

The top two teams from both the East and West qualify automatically. After that, the next best six teams go through, no matter what conference they are in. Last year Red Bull New York played in the West, playing in the final against a second Eastern team, Columbus.

To increase the confusion, many teams have not played the same amount of games. Sounders are currently in 5th, but once everyone has played an equal 23 games we could fall as far as 8th. Here is a link to the table:

Current MLS Standings

If the playoffs started today, here is what it would look like..

1. Columbus
2. Chicago

1. Houston
2. LA Galaxy

5. Sounders
6. Chivas USA
7. Colorado
8. New England

So how many more points do we need to secure a playoff birth? Was a good result in Houston the beginning of a strong push for the post season?

"Some guys [Montero] gotta grow up a bit..."

I'm hoping that my faith in Fredy Montero will pay off sometime soon. Perhaps long streak of excellent form leading us to the MLS promised land? Unfortunately, Thursday's New England match was not the start of that streak. He played well in the first half, moving into space effectively and being dangerous. The high point of his match was the penalty he earned for doing his best impression of Daniel-san against Cobra-Kai - a straight leg kick to the chest which probably was not as painful as it looked. Then it was all downhill. He blasts the shot of the cross bar. He plays a mostly ineffective second half. And he picks up a yellow for being an idiot and heading the ball out of the keeper's hand right before his punt. That yellow card means he misses today's game at Houston. Maybe that will be a good thing.

I am a Montero fan. I think he's our best option at forward. He has great technical ability, he has great vision, and he poaches goals. Not among his qualities is a high work rate. Nor is he willing to give up possession of the ball quickly. And yes, he dives.

But here's what I tell myself when I watch him miss a penalty. Or hold a ball too long and kill an attacking opportunity. Or fall down and feign injury for two minutes. Fredy Montero is young. He's 21 years old. I don't have the natural talent or ability that Montero has. But my experience is this. I learned the benefit of working hard on the field when I first played against a D-1 team. I was 20. I learned how to shoot accurately and with power when I was 21. And I learned to dribble and play physically by the time I was 22. I played soccer my entire life. I wish I learned those things when I was younger, but for whatever reason I did not. And I still don't have Fredy's style when it comes to trendy haircuts.

So we watch Fredy Montero and everybody in the stadium is frustrated by his perceived lack of toughness and his low work rate. Compare his work rate to Le Toux, and you can understand why a stadium full of people thinks that Le Toux would be more effective than Montero (let's not revisit this...). Scoring goals is Fredy's saving grace. When he plays like he did against New England, people really turn on him. But Fredy Montero is young. He's 21 years old.

Montero is going to get better. Hopefully much better. Hopefully he gets good enough to eventually move to Europe and have a productive career. But he's not there yet. Players supposedly peak when they are 27 or 28. I hope he learns to make dangerous runs. To make the dangerous pass when it's available. To give a consistent effort over 90 minutes. To reduce his diving to an acceptable amount. And to finish at a rate that makes him attractive to European clubs. He is young and he has time. He will get better. Let's try and have some patience.

Bill Simmons at Azteca

Even though our focus here is the Sounders, I am linking to this article because it's a really good read. Bill Simmons discusses his experience attending the USA-Mexico Hexagonal match at Azteca. I think it is even more interesting because this guy's audience is huge, and very few of them are soccer fans. Maybe it will open more eyes.

The Sports Guy goes to the Azteca

Damnit Nate is Sort of Right

Nate is right. I can be incredibly irritating when I want something. All I wanted was for him to post something on the website. He did that, so I can go back to just being annoying and argumentative.

But unfortunately, Nate is right. The Sounders look terrible lately. But I'm not as doom and gloom as Nate is. Sure, their results lately have left something to be desired, but at least we finally came out on the right side of a game that involved a red card. Nothing like a man advantage for almost an entire game to get you a road win. Maybe our general dislike of the August version of SSFC is a result of the EPL starting? With world class players back in season, perhaps we're being too harsh on these guys?

So with Nate's disappointment in mind, but a small bit of optimism in my heart, I will post my own player ratings at this point of the season.

K Keller - He has been brilliant, making saves at crucial times. We are very fortunate to have him. Unfortunately, he's been left hanging more than a few times this year, which has hurt his goals against average. But he's one of the only consistently high level performers on the team. He does look slow though, and his distribution has been both inaccurate and questionable. 9/10

Leo Gonzalez - Sure, he hasn't played much, but he's already looked much more dangerous than any left-sided option we've played all year. Tyson Wahl and Zach Scott are back where they belong, as backups. I'll go out on a limb and rate him despite a small sample. 7/10

JK Hurtado - He's been a rock. Wins head balls, wins tackles, makes crucial stops. Too many yellow cards though. His decision-making regarding tackles has been suspect at times. And maybe he's been guilty of some lackadaisical defending at times. But that's only resulted in a few goals, and he is only an MLS defender. We don't expect him to be world class. All things considered, he's been better than good but not quite great. I hate doing this, but I agree with Nate. 8/10

T Marshall - Consistent performer. Unfortunately, the things that come to mind when I review his year so far are a flukish own goal that turned a victory over DC into a 3-3 tie, and a clearance blasted off of Ianni that resulted in a 1-1 tie at NY. Trying to get those things out of my head... I still think his tackling and aerial presence have been solid. When he and Hurtado play, SSFC do not give up a lot of opportunities. 8/10

J Riley - Riley has gotten stronger as the season has gone on. Where at first I criticized his defending and his service, now I applaud his service and his workrate. His defending still leaves something to be desired, but if he were that good at defending and pushing forward, he wouldn't be in the MLS. The red cards are a bit stupid, but he's not in Kindergarten so he isn't supposed to keep his hands to himself. At the beginning of the year, I would have said 6/10. I think he's earned himself a higher score. 8/10

S Zakuani - I can't disagree much with Nate on this one. As the season has progressed, Zakuani has been our most consistent performer. When SSFC emphasizes Zakuani's flank in the attack, good things happen. I think he could do more to be a bigger scoring threat, and his service from the wing is average at best. Still, I'm just nitpicking. He's pure class and isn't destined for MLS much beyond next year's winter transfer window. 9/10

O Alonso - I'm not sure how well SSFC would be doing if Alonso were not on the roster, but I consider him perhaps the best signing the front office made in terms of putting a guy in a position to succeed. Alonso thrives in his current role, destroying plays and distributing the ball well once he wins it. I disagree with Nate here because I think Alonso's passing has been very solid and smart, and generally he makes low percentage passes at the right times - when they can lead to goals. I would rate him a 9, but Laura says he doesn't do a good job of following runners. 8.5/10

F Ljungberg - When he plays he's been a difference maker. I give him credit for the fact that he continues to work his butt off despite being surrounded with guys who don't understand the game as well as he does. Even in his moments of greatest frustration, he still works hard. His dribbling and timely passing set him apart. 9/10

B Evans - I don't agree with Nate here. I think Evans has been very pedestrian his assist against LA and his 5-hole goals notwithstanding. His decision-making is slow, resulting in his getting dispossessed in midfield repeatedly. You're not building a fucking sand castle. Defenders close you down faster than the tide at Ocean Shores. Christ. I'm still a little amazed he got a Gold Cup call up. He's looked terrible since he got back. 6/10

F Montero - Nate, you're an idiot. How does the league's second leading goal scorer rate a 2/10 from you? I realize you're trying to make a point. And the way Montero has been lingering on the ball lately has infuriated me as well. But he got a goal against LA the way he has in several other games in which he has sucked - by being in the right place at the right time. He's driving me crazy too, dude. Less time on the ball and less time on the ground. But he's scoring. If he gives me a goal a game, he can spend 45 minutes on the ground with a pillow and a blanket. I would rate him higher (maybe even a 10 if I were in a good mood) if he weren't blowing chances and he had a sense of urgency on the ball. 8/10

N Jaqua - Well, as much as I want to destroy this guy for playing 6 inches shorter than he really is, I have to apply the same argument I use for defending Montero. He's produced as well as you can expect from a second forward. He doesn't post well, he doesn't win headers as often as I would like, and his touch is subpar even for MLS. But he's poached some goals and seems to have a good understanding of where to run when Montero or Ljungberg have the ball. I'd gladly trade him in for Brian Ching though... come back to Seattle Chinger! Jaqua gets.. 7/10

The Sounders look terrible

I am doing this against my will. Normally I would never be so negative about my home team, but as many of you know Luis can be incredibly irritating when he wants something out of you. I do not see how this is beneficial to anyone, but here goes...

The Sounders are playing so poorly I don't know where to begin. We can not play a ball to feet. We control around 50% of those accurate passes. It takes two to three touches for a player to switch the ball on the defensive end, allowing the opposing team to simply jog and contain. We continuously chip long balls in to Jaqua (who is worse than me in the air), and Montero, who only shows effort 20% of the game. Even that is better than Ljungberg, who skips games when he "isn't feeling well", or when we are playing on old field turf. We have the most red cards in the league. The players know the MLS has the worst officials in the world, so they should be more careful. We have only started 1 GAME with our first 11 this season.

Here is how I would rate the level of play of our starting 11.

Keller- Fantastic. When he called out the team earlier this year for poor effort we saw immediate improvement. 10/10
Leo Gonzalez- I will give him another game or two to gel with the team TBD
Hurtado- Having a good season overall, but 9 yellows is too many. 8/10
Marshall- Inconsistant. Some great performances along with two red cards. QUIT booting the ball to no one! 6/10
Riley- Does well getting involved in the offense, plays in good crosses in the attacking end. 2 Red cards playing at right back? Keep your mouth shut and your hands to yourself. 7/10
Zakuani- Amazing effort, skill, and most importantly, intelligence. he makes great runs, beats people off the dribble, and scores goals. Deserving of a start in his natural position as a striker. 10/10
Alonso- Hard tackles, good vision, good effort. Needs to complete a better percentage of passes and give the ball away less. Probably suffering the most from an inconsistant lineup. 7.5/10
Ljungberg- Take that designated player money and hire a personal chef to cook all your meals for you. How many Arsenal games did you miss because of a headache? 8/10 when he plays, 5/10 overall.
Evans- Still trying to settle after leaving for national team duty. Looked solid before he left. 7.5/10
Jaqua- Has convinced himself that he is a skill player, he is not. Needs to score more goals in the air and win more balls in the air. 6/10
Montero- Bench him. He doesn't care. His injury simulations are embarassing. 10 goals is great, but with his ability he could esily have 20. 2/10

This starting 11 has the talent to win the championship, but it will not happen unless they increase their effort and begin to play intelligent football.

Sounders and Fire play to scoreless draw and some super sweet analysis

It is too damned hot right now. I'm in a basement unit and it's still 273 degrees. If that temperature were in Kelvin and not degrees celsius, it might be pretty cold right now. But it's not. So we can all agree on that, and that the ref for the game (Baldomero Toledo... what kind of name is that?) was an idiot. I'm sure I've seen equally poorly officiated games, but one thing I do know: it's been a long time since I saw a ref hand out as many cards as Baldo did for things other than dangerous play. At least three cards for dissent. You're a ref not a parent. It's a passionate game, people are going to yell at you. Develop some thick skin, and take some of the oil out of your hair.

Anyway... to the game. I'm glad to report to you that Montero played another amazing game. Granted he didn't score, but he was at the heart of nearly every single dangerous attacking opportunity. Each game that goes by, we're going to see the combination of Montero-Jaqua-Ljungberg gain more and more understanding and become more and more dangerous. It isn't quite the Fernando Torres and Steven Gerrard combination... but who is. These guys are starting to link up very well. There were a number of plays in the first half where these three guys and one other (insert Alonso or Zakuani here) combined to create a great scoring chance. I'll say it again, if Montero leaves, we're really REALLY going to miss him. He did miss one golden opportunity to score, and hit the post on another... I'm just sayin'...

Ljungberg. He looks like he wants to be here again. In the middle of that awful streak earlier in the year when we were losing and tying and drawing red cards every game, Ljungberg looked like the last place he wanted to be was on an MLS field. In the last 6 weeks that has completely changed. Ljungberg looks like he's rediscovered joy in the game, despite his explosions at subpar officiating decisions. And the beneficiaries of that joy are guys like Montero, Jaqua, and Zakuani. The attack is flowing these days, and my guess is that it means that the Sounders will take a lot of points from the rest of the games this year.

Other guys I thought played well. Alonso seems like he's back in form, destroying guys all over the place and winning tackles in midfield. His ball in to Montero in the 1st half was beautiful... beautiful vision, perfectly weighted pass, Montero with a perfect run and a perfect first touch. The finish was lacking (which is maybe the most crucial part) but the entire play unfolded perfectly. The other guy I thought played well was Ianni. No bad touches by him this week. All he did was win headers and tackles whenever he needed to, and he was never out of position. You barely noticed him, which is of course, the best thing you can say about a defender.

I have to say... I have liked what Le Toux has done recently. But today's game was a step backwards for him. He made bad decisions, and when he didn't make a bad decision, it was because he was indecisive and was promptly dispossessed. And who really surprised me? The outside backs. I don't give Riley enough credit for his incredible work rate and his improving service from the wing. He's starting to add getting around people to his list of skills. And despite his constant overlapping runs on the wing, he always gets back. Wahl doesn't get involved as much as Riley, but he's shown improved position and better passing instincts. I still think that Gonzalez will be a significant improvement, but his improvement has turned left back into a position of depth.

All things considered, I can't really complain about the effort on Saturday, especially coming off of the Open Cup game on Tuesday when some of these guys played 120 minutes. I would have preferred a Nyassi substitution instead of a Le Toux substitution, but that's my only complaint. The backline was solid. We barely heard anything about Chris Rolfe during the game. We heard about Blanco because he was booed every time he touched the ball, but his impact on the game was minimal. Time to take points against San Jose.

Game Day - Chicago Fire

Game Day!! Game Day!! I wish I had some keys to the game, but all I can put down is my thoughts. I'm sure none of them are key.

First, Brian McBride is out, probably for the rest of the year, recovering from shoulder surgery. That's a HUGE loss for Chicago. McBride would have been one of the few forwards SSFC faced this year that was actually a threat to beat Hurtado and Marshall for headers on a consistent basis. Big advantage to SSFC

Second, we're going to have to play a lot better than we did last time in Chicago. Despite getting out of there with a point on a super-lucky, playing a man down, set piece toe poke goal by Tyrone Marshall... SSFC did not impress in the game. It's been a long time since the first game, and SSFC are at home for this one. I think they will show their quality today.

Lastly, eat shit Chicago. Tailgate will start in one hour behind Pyramid Brewery. It's gonna be a scorcher!

The Montero to Fulham Rumors - The Impact of a Montero Departure

The rumors have been floating around for the past few weeks that Fulham of the EPL has been in contact with Fredy Montero. Schmid reportedly would not stand in the way of a transfer to Fulham (doubtful that Sounders FC could if they wanted to, although the terms of the loan deal with Deportivo Cali are not public). So what happens if they are true and Montero is gone in the next few weeks?

Count me among those who thinks that the loss of Montero would be devastating to Sounder playoff and Open Cup hopes. My first argument is an obvious one - how do you replace Montero's point production? As of today, Montero has played in 15 of the 17 MLS league matches, and has accounted for 9 goals and 6 assists. This puts him 2nd overall in MLS for goals scored behind Schelotto's 10, and in a tie with several others for 2nd overall in MLS for assists with 6. And if the Sounders learned how to capitalize on set pieces, his 39 fouls suffered (2nd in MLS) would provide a number of great scoring opportunities for others. I'm not sure how you argue against these numbers. They exceed anything that could be accomplished on luck alone....

Which leads to my second point. Sounders do not have another natural forward that gets it like Montero does. In the last month, as Montero, Jaqua and Ljungberg have developed an understanding of each other's games, the scoring opportunities have gone up significantly. And Montero is the one who has been the most consistent (if maybe not efficient) in scoring goals during the stretch, scoring in the last 5 MLS games. Additionally, Montero is one of the few guys on the roster that can create a goal out of nothing but his own individual talent. It is this ability to create that neither Jaqua nor Le Toux possess. And it's why I don't believe that anybody on the roster right now could step up their production to make up for Montero's absence.

Man, that last point has me on the verge of launching into several other Jaqua and Le Toux-related issues, but I need to stay focused.... Look, I'll grant you that Montero has had a lot of chances to score lately that he has failed to put away. Golden opportunities at that. The Houston Open Cup match on Tuesday was one prime example, with Montero failing to even get a shot off. But it's MONTERO that seems to find himself in that position. It's not Le Toux, and it's not Jaqua. I don't care how tall you are, or how hard you work. The truth is that Montero's ability to read the game and be in the right place at the right time will always be more valuable to a team than Le Toux's work rate.