The Playoff Push

So Nate brought up the question of how many points Sounders need to reach the playoffs at the end of the year. That got me to wondering what the rest of the schedule looked like. I know we don't have a lot of home games left. So let's see what games are on tap, where, and see what our chances are of taking points.

But first, Nate's conclusion that we need 40 points to be guaranteed a playoff spot. Agreed. My only caveat is that it seems like the last team in always has 39 points (even in seasons where they played 32 games). So maybe if we stink it up going forward, we can sneak in with 39 points. That being said, I'll go along with you Nate and see whether I think 43 points is achievable.

Here are the seven games left on the schedule:

Toronto (H)

DC (A)

Chivas (H)

New England (A)

Columbus (A)

Kansas City (A)

Dallas (H)

Toronto at Home 8.29 - 3 points

Their form is off and they are terrible away from home. In all competitions they have only won twice since the beginning of July. We should have all our attacking options available and we are at home. If we can't win this game, we don't deserve to make the playoffs.

DC Away 9.12 - 3 points

Since winning at home against Colorado on July 18th, DC has struggled. STRUGGLED. They have a murderous stretch of games coming up. They play 8 games in the next 4 weeks, and their game against us will be their 4th game in 10 days. I'm going out on a limb here. We win this game. DC will be exhausted and some of their key guys will probably be hurt or missing due to fatigue. In that same span? Sounders play once, against DC, in DC, on the first of the ten days. If there's a better scenario for us to take all the points on the road, I don't know what it is.

Chivas at Home 9.19 - 3 points

Chivas has been getting absolutely DESTROYED since beating Seattle in early June. I mean TAKEN TO THE WOODSHED. That being said, most teams in the league (not Seattle, unfortunately) get back on winning streaks when they play NYRB, and Chivas did that two weeks ago. They are now on a two-match streak. But they play AWAY to RSL, then they play LA in the Clasico, and then across the country to New England. They could conceivably lose all three games. If they take three points in that stretch, I'll be surprised. If they come in having been spanked in that stretch, I think Sounders will continue the beating. We finally get Chivas at home with a chance to get them back for some crappy results at the HDC. We win this game.

New England Away 9.26 - 0 points

At this point in my (unexpectedly) super-optimistic predictions, Sounders fly as far as they ever have to in order to play an MLS match. The stupid Revs are 4-1-1 in their last 6, winning on the road twice in that stretch. They get San Jose and KC at home, and then Chivas and NY on the road. I think they'll come through that stretch with 3 wins and a tie, and I feel like I'm selling them short in suggesting that they might tie Chivas. No scheduling grind to speak of either, as all these games are spaced out pretty well. I think our streak ends here, and NE gets the points despite a good effort from Sounders.

Columbus Crew Away 10.3 - 1 point

Columbus has gone mad. They have 6 wins in their last six matches. 6. They are destroying people. Their schedule isn't that easy before this game, playing Houston, Chicago and LA in September. Couple that with a CONCACAF Champions League slate that includes going to Costa Rica, and the Crew are in for a rough patch in September. They play six tough matches before they play Seattle, and only have three days to recover for this match after hosting Saprissa (no slouches) on Sept. 29th. I think we catch them at a great time. Injuries and cards and fatigue all play a role here. Sounders have a full week to prepare and no such grind in the month prior. We should manage a road draw. Maybe even a win with some luck.

Kansas City Wizards Away 10.17 - 1 point

No scheduling advantage for either team as neither has more than a game a week in the month leading up. KC is TURRUBLE right now. They have lost 3 straight, including losses to FC Dallas and SJ. They play at Houston and at Chivas in the two weeks prior, so they might be riding a losing streak. I think this is a road game we can poach. But in true Seattle fashion, I think the field conditions and some poor finishing will doom us to a tie.

FC Dallas Home 10.24 - 3 points?

If we've collected 11 points in the prior 6 matches, does this match even matter? We may have already secured a playoff spot. It may affect playoff POSITION, or it may not. If it doesn't, we may play subs and who knows. If it does mean something... FC Dallas plays at SJ and gets the Rapids at home in the two weeks before this. The schedule doesn't betray either team. The question here is if Sounders can stop Jeff Cunningham. The guy went insane for awhile (scoring 4 against KC on 8.1), but hasn't done much in the past few games. FC Dallas just lost to NYRB, but that will be ancient history by the time this game takes place. There might even be snow on the ground. That being said, on talent alone Seattle should handle this game. If it matters? 3 points. If not, 1 point.

And Wow. Somehow I've managed to predict a super-optimistic 14 points from the remaining 7 games. Is this even remotely reasonable? I would, and do (see above...) argue that this is reasonable. I must keep in mind Sounders' penchant for picking up stupid red cards, which will probably show up again at some point and result in us losing points to somebody when we probably would have earned something from the match playing with 11. Also, we have a lot of guys with yellow card accumulation problems. Marshall is on 4, with 2 games before the reduction to 3. Ljungberg is on 4, with no reduction possible. At some point he's going to get a stupid yellow. Let's hope he chooses wisely.

All things considered though, I see a strong and optimistic end to the season, and a solid playoff position. 47 points should get us a solid spot in the top 4 or 5.